Tories on Highest Poll Rating Since 1987
A YouGov/Telegraph poll tomorrow will put the Tories ahead by 18% - the highest rating since Thatcher’s 1987 peak. The full breakdown is as follows:
Conservative: 44
Labour: 26
LibDem: 17
The arguments over this poll could run and run - and I suspect they will. But to add fuel to the fire, allow me to pontificate over the potential results a return like this at the next General Election would give. By using the Electoral Calculus website, one can instantly get a picture of how the makeup of the House of Commons would be, including a list of seat changes. This will make for very unhappy reading.
| Party | 2005 Votes | 2005 Seats | Pred Votes | Pred Seats |
| CON | 33.24% | 208 | 44.00% | 407 |
| LAB | 36.21% | 347 | 26.00% | 182 |
| LIB | 22.65% | 66 | 17.00% | 31 |
Among those Labour MPs losing their seats are Jack Straw, John Denham, Ruth Kelly, etc. No wonder Labour MPs are revolting. Brown is a liability.
Also of note is the halving of LibDem seats: Nick Clegg and Chris Huhne both stand to lose their seats with this kind of result. Turmoil in both parties is not out of the question.
This, of course, would all be worthless pontificating in most circumstances. Usually, errant polls like this give rise to a few extra column inches but do not arouse interest beyond the Westminster village. A minor blip, one might suggest. But the sampling took place before Wednesday’s humiliating events, and Brown is set to face two further rebellions in the next few weeks. Factor in the prospect of a Tory Mayor of London by this time next week and a Conservative sweeping of council seats in the local elections. Those who derided the prospect of Brown being ousted may well be forced to eat some humble pie - albeit a rather more slender portion than Brown might have coming to him.
The Labour party has two options. Either they boot their loser leader quickly and call a snap election (which, for the record, I believe they would lose) or they keep Brown on and hope the electorate learn to hate the Tories more. Any Labour MP who honestly believes the latter option is a better policy ought to be looking for a padded cell, not re-election.
This is the time a third party could become a second party. The SDP nearly managed it in 1983. Trust the LibDems to have missed their chance once again. A drunk Charlie Kennedy would have been polling higher than 17%, and standing a really good chance of squeezing Labour. Clegg has missed the boat. He’s a loser, too.
Posted in: Bad Policy, Domestic Politics, LibDems, Parliament, The Government, Tories
17+26 = 43
44 > 43
Even with PR this is less than promising. >.>
Still, it’s not as if YouGov haven’t fucked up before. Brown having dealt with the 10% rate rebellion may help, though.
Why the excitement over an apparent Tory lean in a “YouGov/Telegraph poll”?
But seriously, people have been dissatisfied with the government for a long time, myself included, but I’m not about to abandon sanity and vote Conservative. Though I might well tell my less jaded politically involved friends that I was in order to express my dissatisfaction.