Clinton leads in Indiana by 10, Obama in South Carolina by 15. This may look like a tie, but really constitutes a failure for Clinton to close the gap. Andrew says that she can’t let go, with a subtext of “she can’t go on” but it seems that it’s not just him. The most influential strata of America, the pundit class, now seem to feel that Hillary has lost and is wasting their time. It’s a good thing they noticed.

Also, while it lasts I recommend checking out the front page of Drudge.

I wonder how the Clinton sniper saga is playing in America.  It is difficult to imagine that many people do not feel it has been a fairly large hit to her credibility.  Time will tell, I suspect. This video (via Play Political) sheds some light on the real truth of the Bosnia trip.

A Clinton win, if not impossible, is at least highly unlikely.

My early morning perusal of the BBC tells me Clinton has won Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island.  The latter doesn’t matter.  The former two do. Clinton is still some 90 delegates behind Obama, but this does save her campaign from the possible early demise.

Why is it this race manages to blow itself open again just as it was looking like we might win?

In less irritating news, Huckabee has dropped out f the Republican race. Well, I say less irritating, but the prospect of a messy Republican race all the way to the conference would have been nice.  Not, to be fair, that it was happening that way anyway.

The latter, though, doesn’t make a tangible difference to much, save McCain’s campaign expenses. We already knew he was the Republican nominee de facto.

I wonder who he’ll attack first. Perhaps he’d be better served by leaving Clinton and Obama to tear into each other for a while before laying in.

But - annoyed by Texas and Ohio. I don’t think they’ll stop Obama, but they’re a bump in the road.

More intelligent commentary later, when I’ve actually had some coffee in substitute for waking up at a human hour.

I am not {I have assured my aching body} going to stay up tonight to cover the primaries/caucuses.

Thus far the data suggests a strong lead for Obama in Texas, although this is only the primaries and the urban areas are the ones that {as ever} have reported back first. I am no analyst of such matters but given that the loathsome Penn’s excuse for many of Clinton’s failures was the caucus system somehow favouring Obama the fact that they have not yet reported back is a worrying indication for her.

Ohio looks set for a narrow Clinton win. As everyone suspected.

What they might not have anticipated is just how close it looks. Things seem very tight and although they could flux at the moment it seems like Hillary will have a hard time milking her win for actual delegates, or a great degree of kudos given the scrape-through.

Thus far nothing to suggest that the basic expectations of the night will be altered: Obama does not succeed enough to cause Clinton to drop out and she continues to claw her hold deeper even as the earth she clings to slips away between her talons. Obama wins but only after a lengthy and protracted process involving, most likely, a race than lasts as long as the convention.

That said, all the early numbers could have lead me horribly ary and been utterly misleading. It could swing somewhere else.

Hrm…Perhaps I should stay up after all…

Apart from the whole, y’know, being Scottish thing I could really not agree with this article more.

My reaction to the spread of this photograph has been delayed and will be brief.  Delayed, because I’ve been busy.  Brief, as frankly, there’s not much to say.

Clinton’s campaign team have been disgusting here.  How can this be anything but a blatant attempt to attract the bigot vote?  They insinuated last year that Obama is a muslim - which, of course, he isn’t.  Circulating a picture of him in a turban to the Drudge Report looks dangerously like the direct heir to that policy.

Stereotypically, muslims wear turbans - or at least, they do in the minds of the sort of people who are going to be put off by this sort of photo.  The fact is that this turban has nothing to do with Islam.  It’s part of the traditional Somali dress that Obama is wearing.   But, in the mind of a latent bigot, he’s wearing a turban, ergo he’s a muslim, ergo he must be a terrist.

Of course, what Clinton’s team are missing here is that such a person was never going to vote for Obama anyway - or even her.  The sort of knuckle-dragger that believes Obama must be a muslim because he’s worn a turban and is called Hussein probably secretly feels a woman’s place is chained to an oven…

Of course, Clinton’s campaign team have denied any attempts to tar Obama as a Muslim.  Clinton’s campaign managers said: “If Barack Obama’s campaign wants to suggest that a photo of him wearing traditional Somali clothing is divisive, they should be ashamed.”

So now Obama’s the racist?  Wow, I need to keep up…

The fact is that this defence, aside from being completely disingenuous, isn’t a defence.  Why would they circulate this photo if they weren’t trying to stir latent - and overt - Islamophobia against him?  Aside from that, it’s a fairly ordinary photograph.  There’s very little special about it.  Obama was on a trip to Kenya, he wore traditional Somali clothing.  Nothing unusual for a politician there - as Clinton’s team pointed out in her defence, she’s done that sort of thing plenty of times, and published the pictures.

And there’s the rub.  She published the pictures.  Obama didn’t publish these - implying that he wanted to keep them private.  If they’re being circulated by Clinton’s campaign team - and somehow, I believe the Drudge more than them on who supplied it -  without  reason, we must presume they’re doing so for the sake of it.  That is: they are publishing private photographs for the sake of it.

That’s permissible now?  Great.  How’s about we get out the baby pics Hills?  The press would go wild…

It won’t make a difference - or much of one, anyway.  Dodd was, electorally, a non-entity.  He came 6th in Iowa, and dropped out.  He’d focused heavily on his campaign there.  If he had many supporters elsewhere, I suspect they’ve already found someone else by now.

Still, it can’t really harm.  And Dodd’s analysis of Obama’s campaign seems spot on:

Mr Dodd said Mr Obama had “been poked and prodded, analysed and criticised, called too green, too trusting and for all of that has already won” more than half the states and millions of votes.

It’s a good point.  For someone who, according to his opponents, lacks any experience whatsoever, he does a surprisingly good job of winning more votes than his opponent.

And surviving her smear campaigns.

McCain’s campaign isn’t over that lobbyist, apparently.  He looks to have survived the allegations that they slept together - but now they’re calling him corrupt.  Look:

The controversy now centres on the appearance that McCain may have lobbied on Paxson’s behalf. Paxson, who had made campaign contributions to McCain and repeatedly lent him his private jet, was keen to buy a TV station in Pittsburgh. But the FCC had delayed making a decision on the case.

McCain, who was then head of the powerful Senate Commerce Committee, wrote two letters asking the commission to hurry up its decision. The FCC then issued a written rebuke, calling McCain’s intervention ‘highly unusual’.

If anything, this is more of a problem for McCain than adultery would have been.  McCain has based his reputation, since before his first run in 2000, on being an anti-corruption politician.  If what’s being said here is true, then he’s very definitely behaved dodgily - and is manifestly a hypocrite.

And if the potential sex scandal was driven under by a tide of conservative vitriol, then this won’t be.  Where there’s only so much you can do to investigate sex allegations - interrogate both parties, hope one of them will tell - there’s a lot that can be done here.  Very much digging, and a chance that something will turn up.

And, of course, there’s the fact that his opponents know this could kill him.  So they won’t stop that digging.

Just look at the way his campaign’s shut down over this:

 ”After the news broke the traditionally press-friendly McCain campaign went into shutdown, cancelling a press conference and keeping reporters away from McCain except at designated moments.“

This worries them - deeply.  It’s not a sophisticated move on McCain’s part, just a blunt, self-imposed incommunicado.  It just looks like he wants to get away from the press, as fast as possible.  Whether that’s simply because he doesn’t need the torrent of questions now, or because he has actually done something wrong and needs time to concoct a convinving alibi, I don’t know.  But it looks panicky.

Ultimately, I suspect that this simply won’t kill McCain.  If other prominent Republicans started attacking him over it - maybe.  But they probably know by now that he’s their only chance of holding the presidency next term.  Who would they put in place if McCain’s campaign imploded?  Huckabee - who’s won a small minority of states, and who terrifies much of America?  Romney - who everyone just hates?

Much as they hate him, they need McCain - and so won’t attack.  They may even defend him.  And attacks from the left just aren’t going to put off Republican voters.  They may even help him - if their political foes hate him so much, then he must be doing something right, the line might go.

But, even if he doesn’t explode, this mud can stick.

Hillary should have realised that negative campaigning won’t work after her, “Change you can Xerox,” line flopped so badly.  People are drawn to Obama because he represents something different - a positive voice.  Turning nasty won’t win them over.  In atttacking Obama like this, it looks like she’s the one indulging in Karl Rove tactics - and thus a hypocrite.

Of course, Obama can’t really point this out.  It’d look like he was turning nasty then - indulging a sordid and petty row, sinking to Hillary’s level.  That wouldn’t look very good for him, given that it’s the very behaviour he stands against.  And so he hasn’t gone fully on the attack here - just denied the allegations.

That doesn’t stop others going on the attack on his behalf though…