Tim Hames: Almost as good an analysist as William Rees Mogg
For a former lecturer of American and British studies at Oxford Tim Hanes truly does know startlingly little about his topic. This is the man who predicted that the Republicans would hold both Houses so firmly that he was forced to eat the article coated in tobasco after their thorough electoral humiliation. How exactly a man who seemingly knows quite so little about the shape the future will take yet {be it what would happen to Iraq after foreign soldiers took control of it or…Well…Anything at all} gets to continue to make ham-fisted attempts after so many shocking failures is beyond me.
This week he stared off with a premise as weak as it was offensive:
He [Obama] has been the General Lee of the competition so far.
Yes, mixed-race, half-black Barack Obama is much like the man who came vaguely close to protecting American slavery. Can you actually get worse than that? Yes, it seems like you can.
If he were to win the Pennsylvania primary, he would indeed become unstoppable. Yet adversity has brought out the best in Mrs Clinton. She has fought for seven weeks in Pennsylvania and while no one has been killed or wounded (unlike the 8,000 dead and near 50,000 casualties and losses at Gettysburg) it has been a bruising struggle with Mrs Clinton landing the most blows. The odds are that she will at least emerge strong enough to take her cause on further.
This analysis is, to put it lightly, shockingly poor. The only perspective from which this could be the “Best in Mrs. Clinton” is if you are either a journalist or a Republican. The former have delighted in being provided copious headlines by Clinton’s vicious mud-slinging while the latter have seen their electoral prospects soar and woefully inappropriate candidate unchallenged.
Furthermore she may have landed the most blows but this is primarily because she is the one who has been doing the most punching. Obama has started to retaliate of late, perhaps because of so many people saying that he looked like a “Wimp” after the last debate, but for the most part the month and three weeks have been an exercise in Clinton doing her best to maim her opponent, causing endless vats of rightist joy to be filled.
The chances are that Mr Obama will end the nomination season with more pledged delegates than Mrs Clinton. His admirers argue that it would be profoundly wrong for those who have not been elected as delegates to overturn the will of those who have. It’s a seductive claim, but there are good reasons why the superdelegates should ignore it and instead endorse Mrs Clinton.
Sounds dreadfully “Democratic”.
The first is, what is the point of the superdelegate system if all they do is follow the majority of pledged delegates? Why bother with them? Why not just allow them to turn up at the convention as mere observers?
Shockingly enough there is no point.
The Democratic Party created the superdelegate system about 25 years ago because it feared that the party’s most ideological supporters were quite capable of choosing a candidate who many ordinary Democrats would not feel able to back at polling stations. If the primaries and caucuses were to be the gearbox of the nominating procedure, then the superdelegates were designed to serve as the handbrake. That is their role.
Yes, the elite knows best. Let us place our trust in the establishment. The wishes of the party who actually showed up to vote are an irrelevance.
Secondly, any advantage that Mr Obama will have among pledged delegates is misleading. Not only will Mrs Clinton have won in most of the largest states but she will probably have secured the bulk of delegates won in primaries - where turnout is comparatively high, while he has romped home in the caucuses - where participation is notoriously feeble.
It is here that Hanes exposes his blundering ignorance. He would have half a leg to stand on if he was actually correct in his claim concerning the number of Democrats which have voted for which. This is being measured and is known, predictably enough, as the “Popular Vote”.
At present Obama is thrashing her there, too.
That noise is the debris of Hanes’ argument hitting a hard surface as his case falls to pieces like a house of cards encountering a falling brick.
Furthermore, if all the superdelegates were compelled to vote for the person who won the most votes in their state (which they should not be, but it is an interesting exercise), then Mrs Clinton, who is likely to end the season having triumphed in eight of the most populous ten states (including Florida and Michigan, which had their results discounted by the Democratic National Committee as punishment for scheduling their primaries too early), would benefit hugely.
Because, of course, a vote where neither candidate campaigned is perfectly justifiably claimed as one in which she “Triumphed”, as is one where the named “Obama” was not even to be accepted as a write-in candidate let alone to be found on the ballot. Hanes’ partisanship is quite bewildering to behold. Either that or it is a level of ignorance that would be yet more shocking. I am highly thankful that I never endured him as a lecturer.
Finally, enough is now known about the strengths and weaknesses of these two contenders for superdelegates to come to the following conclusion. Mrs Clinton is the 5347 option and Mr Obama is the 5542 one. By this I mean that it is tough to imagine her obtaining more than 53 per cent of the national vote against John McCain, but it is hard to envisage her falling below 47 per cent either.
Given that half of Americans have stated that they would not vote for her under any circumstances I think that it is safe to say that it is impossible to imagine her winning at all.
Most of those Democrats who prefer Mr Obama to her (African-Americans, affluent whites, the young) would nevertheless back the New York senator in November
This is where Hanes becomes simply tiresome in his disconnection to America. I have visited chat-rooms, read blogs and talked to friends over AIM but not actually been there since I was still in the womb so perhaps the same is true of me. But there is one message unmistakable: Hillary will not be getting the black votes she lost back. Not since all that carnage. If she wins the nomination the people disgusted with her actions and “Fairytale” and “So did Jesse Jackson” remark of her husband will not flock back to her. Neither will the “Obamaniacs”, who loathe her. Neither will the MoveOn.orgers, who she lied about and lost forever when she backed the war.
They will simply not be there.
(particularly if their man was in the vice-presidential slot)
Yeah, he actually won the election through popular vote and through delegates but he’s certain to settle for that. I fear I see the specter of race hovering here, or at least opposition to youth {not that Obama truly is one} but as neither are mentioned explicitly I will not speculate.
Mr Obama, by contrast, has a somewhat higher vote ceiling but a much lower floor to his vote. If Americans decide that they are desperate for “change”, pure and simple, then he is a better vehicle for that mood than a woman who has the history of the 1990s attached to her.
Americans are pretty clearly in favour of that, as demonstrated by the theft of Obama’s buzzword by Hillary.
If, though, voters are after “change (with reassurance)”, as one suspects is the case, then she is a smarter bet against Mr McCain. A sizeable slice of working-class Democrats who back her may switch to the Arizona Senator if she loses. In the worst-case scenario, the Republican champion may well wipe the floor with Mr Obama.
Yes, nothing like a man who wants to stay in Iraq for as long as it takes to “Win” {whatever that means} to offer “reassurance”. No match exists for a man who is not only incapable of understanding the economy at present but also seemingly devoid of much interest to do so in the future. The working-classes are bound to move towards a man who proposes their families continue to die in Iraq and suggests that they get no assistance after having their lives ruined by corporate lies.
Iraq is, of course, the unspoken issue here. I suspect that Hanes prefers Hillary for much the same reason the right does: they know that she is incapable of removing troops and they are wary of someone who had enough foresight to show them up long, long ago, while they were still crying out that it would be the seamless toppling of a tyrant followed by liberal democracy reigning and free civil liberties being distributed evenly to all by a crack-squad of friendly, benevolent GIs.
Obama is deeply challenging to those who were fooled quite so thoroughly in a way that a fellow victim {Clinton does at least care about the political aftermath, which she did not foresee} never can. Clinton will never gain the political leverage necessary to extricate America and this is an out-come that the unrepentant neo-cons and their blushing apologists find favourable. The rest suggest that we should abandon the White Man’s Burden, an act of heinous dereliction.
Assuming she is victorious in Pennsylvania, then Mrs Clinton should keep on running. The superdelegates must ask themselves not only “who can win?” but “how might they lose?” For the reality of Gettysburg is not that in pure military terms the North actually won, but that it did not lose. It was this that later made it such a decisive moment.
If the superdelegates wish to destroy the relationship of an entire generation with their party and have a burning desire to lose an election that a one-eyed monkey with mange could triumph against the Republican Party with then they should unquestionably override the wishes of those they supposedly represent and force Clinton into position. This would result in a rupture within the party and the ultimate in culture war elections: Vietnam vet who reckons America should have stayed in and reckons they should stay in now against technocratic liberal of the elite and of the establishment. A speech at Wellesley versus years being tortured by the Viet Cong.
More dire baby-boomer drama, in other words.