From Stop Boris:

“23:58
After 2nd prefs, Boris wins with 1168738 votes vs 1028966 for Ken - majority of 139772.

Thanks for trying, Boris-stoppers.”

We lose.  London loses…

The local election results have put Labour into third place, giving them their worst election result for 40 years.  The Tories are riding high on 44%, and the LibDems are more or less stagnant.  So, where next for the three major parties?

Labour

Labour has taken a thorough beating.  There is no escaping the fact that voters have turned away from Labour in their droves, leaving hung councils all over the country.  Labour’s losses have been biggest in south Wales and the Northern industrial towns.  The mood of the South has already shifted.  Labour needs to act dramatically to prevent a Tory government: the cabinet needs refreshing and a whole raft of new policies need airing.  The only way to meet a desire for a breath of fresh air is to provide one: Labour needs an “interim manifesto” and needs charismatic leaders to implement it, acting like a party newly elected from a decade on the opposite side of the House.  Only with this kind of radical thinking can they stave off a general election pounding in 2010.  There are three concessions if this plan fails: first, that the coming disaster will not be quite so catastrophic; second, that a solid Labour legacy would be left; and third, that the (relatively speedy?) return to government will see skilled young ministers with experience and vision in equal measure.

Liberal Democrats

With Labour’s fast sinking, the LibDems needed to capitalise on the best chance they will get for perhaps a decade.  I have long argued that the LibDems can and should be in second place: Thursday’s results have achieved that.  But the LibDems have not earned their victories here, and Labour could manage to reclaim ground against them.  If Nick Clegg and his party is to begin actively earning such leads, he must forge an identity as one of the three parties - not the third party.  They must behave like a front-runner, producing full manifestos and speaking of a real belief that they can win.  Clegg has failed to make any news with policy changes or party identification.  A complete package laying out what the party believes in, a run of top ten policies, a logo change, and a ditching of that gaudy yellow corporate image, combined with an advertising campaign, would begin to set them apart.  If this sounds a bit like what the Tories have recently done, it should: Cameron’s use of PR has been brilliantly effective, and the LibDems should shamelessly follow their lead.  Providing, of course, that a genuine serarate identity is forged.  The party needs reform, but I firmly believe it could be in second place nationally before too long, and mounting an effective opposition to the Tories.  As the Tory slogan now runs, “you can get it if you really want”!

Conservatives

These elections have been something of a “go to your local elections and prepare us for government” moment for the Tories.  I believe Brown has reached his tipping point - the point at which regaining a poll lead is implausible, although not impossible.  The Tories are getting the vote out, but these new voters are by definition volatile.  Also, there are still more than enough apathetic voters to put a spanner in any party’s works.  The Tories must therefore fight to retain their share of the vote.  Their victories here will be seen as a test: if they perform poorly (factoring out further Brown failures), they will be heading for some hostility two years down the line.  In short, they may have peaked too soon.  Given the Westminster electoral system’s propensity to lift Labour artificially, the Tory majority may well be slim, and therefore volatile.  The Tories cannot be complacent.  I do not expect the public image to slide, but, behind closed doors, a creeping complacency may take them by surprise.  Nonetheless, one must be quite clear that the weather looks very rosy indeed for the Conservative party.

It would have been quicker to get my Grandmother to count the Mayoral votes.

Just her. By herself. By hand. On her own.

What do these machines fucking do? Laminate each ballot and dip it in yoghurt?

From here.

I had assumed that the mistreatment of those in the Occupied Territories was something that I knew the horrific basics of until I read this. It seems that 94% of the settlements have inadequate provisions for their sewage, often resulting in excrement being pumped in fashions that can either contaminate drinking water or occasionally sweep free of their position and drown infants and the elderly. This is usually the point where I’m expected to say something balancing about the terrible suffering of the Jews in the Holocaust {perpetrated by the Palestinians, of course} or talk about suicide bombings or rocket attacks or so on, or at least state that I acknowledge Israel’s “right to exist” to show everyone that I’m not a raging anti-semite.

I won’t.

This is horrific and I shouldn’t have to compromise my belief in the merits of internationalism to say so. The settlers have such little regard {or perhaps so much contempt} for those who’s land they have stolen that they are prepared to allow their waste to flood them. That is not something that you can argue the suffering of “Your people” has mitigated, it is a basically accepted point amongst civilised humanity that you do not flood other people with your shit. To try and bring in some non sequiters about a group of deranged bigots that stand little hope of ever defeating the equally prejudiced and unhinged IDF is effectively an act of apologism.

This sort of horrible nonsense is the sort of natural conclusion that Zionism can’t help itself but lead to. If you base any philosophy around the principle that your own group’s interest can be advanced over that of another you will lead to somewhere dire and anyone saying that this sort of treatment of people isn’t has obviously become such a ruthless partisan that any attempts at debate are bound to be futile.

“I think we’re holding our own, we are coming in around about 15% by the look of things, if we do manage 15% that will be the best performance for a Lib Dem candidate to date.”

Brian Paddick

The BBC is projecting a 7% rise in Tory vote.  Labour has spent the day lowering their expectations and then ramping up those of the Tories.  Like with the SNP in 2007, Labour are universally rubbish at playing the expectations game.  The Tories will sleep well tonight, whatever happens in London.  Nationally, they appear very seriously set for General Election victory.  Say what you will about the Conservatives, this has been a very good night for them.  There is much to encourage the Tories.

UPDATE: 02-05-08, 20.00

The following graphic comes from Martin Bright, showing how the results would be received.  It truly is a bad night for Labour - a loss well into the “panic” zone.  Much champagne for the Tories.  The LibDems will spin it as best as they can, but surely their results will, upon inspection, be received in a decidedly lukewarm fashion.

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