Thoughts on tonight’s vote
I’m deeply sceptical about this first vote on the Lisbon Treaty. Here’s why:
This is an important vote for both sides of the debate. They are thus likely to try and muster as many MPs as possible, and to whip them.
Labour has 352 MPs. Of these, 18 are declared rebels, and will vote against the reform. 100 are said to be unhappy that there’s been no referendum. However, most of these will probably also be unhappy with breaking the whip. Even if this many do rebel, that’ll leave the government with some 220-230 votes, give or take several tens.
The majority of Tories are against the Treaty - both on the grounds that they, “want a referendum,”* and because they disapprove of the reform itself. There are, at most, 194 of them.
The Lib Dems are abstaining en masse, calling for a debate on European membership itself instead.
There are 4 nationalist MPs who have signed the same amendment as the Labour rebels. They will presumably vote against the Treaty.
As for the rest of the independents and minor parties, I’m not aware that any of them have declared a position. Similarly, I’m not particularly sure their votes would amount to much significant anyway.
Viewed that way, the government should be able to pass this without too much trouble, even accepting a large Labour rebellion is possible. The most that might change, I suspect, is that such a rebellion, if it happened, might make the government reconsider its position and derail the legislation somewhat. But that seems unlikely too.
I don’t like parliament functioning this way, as it shouldn’t do - but I suspect it will.
*I maintain that, actually, they want to humiliate the government and indulge their eurosceptic egos rather than actually give the people a choice.
Posted in: Domestic Politics, Europe, Grumpiness, Parliament
I’m looking for those who oppose a referendum and those who oppose the Treaty as a whole.
I’m not aware of any MPs having declared themselves as such. I doubt they exist - even if they do, I suspect they’ll keep quiet about opposing the referendum tonight. They would very much be on their own - and, frankly, the referendum is too easy a tool for the anti-Treaty group to try and stop it with for them to ignore it (regardless of their actual views on the place of referenda in representative democracy…)