Not there yet
From the BBC:
Zimbabwe’s government and electoral chiefs have warned the main opposition MDC it should not declare an early victory in the presidential poll.
Zimbabwe’s government and electoral chiefs are entirely correct in warning the MDC against declaring early victory. However, this has nothing whatsoever to do with the government’s line that:
“Results are being verified and collated” (Mugabe’s election chief) and the MDC are guilty of “speculation and lies” (Mugabe’s information minister)
And everything to do with the following sort of statement:
“A coup d’etat and we all know how coups are handled” - George Chambara, Information Ministry Secretary
This follows a string of statements from the heads of the army, police and prison service over the last few weeks saying they will not allow the MDC to win. The MDC may have won the popular vote, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they have won power.
Indeed, it is almost certain that the MDC have won the popular vote. Mugabe has become massively unpopular in recent years, save among certain rural constituencies, his own Zuzuru tribe and most of all, his own cronies. Inflation is running at some 100,000%. Farmers are beginning to cotton on to the fact that, when land was redistributed, it was to Mugabe’s chums and not the people. Queues are getting longer and longer, while supplies get shorter and shorter. In the most recent independent pre-election poll, he trailed 9% to Tsvaniurai. Yet more citizens polled declared themselves undecided - generally interpreted to mean opposition votes scared of being targetted by the police. And so on, and so on.
Makoni’s defection from ZANU-PF further makes a Mugabe victory unlikely. He looks to have dragged a significant number of Mugabe’s old voters away rather than splitting an opposition vote. His remaining friends in ZANU-PF include some who, having previously rigged for Mugabe, are more aware of how to avoid his tricks. If push comes to shove, he may well throw in besides the MDC rather than Mugabe - if nothing else, because there is a significant chance Mugabe will do away with him should he win, regardless of later support.
In many ways, though, this is practically irrelevant. MDC could win as many votes as they like - but Mugabe is exceptionally unlikely to accept defeat. It’s not so much that he has anything left to do - cleaning up the mess he’s made has never ranked highly in his priorities. It’s more that he’s (very sensibly) terrified of losing power now, as it could well end in trial and hanging for him.
And Mugabe still has the loyalty, as far as we know, of most army and police chiefs - allowing him to keep his grip on power by force. Even accepting that the Zimbabwean people may well not accept this and rise up, that some troops on the ground are discontented, and that Makoni may have the friendship of some army commanders, this means violence is likely should Mugabe fear losing.
Which he does. At the most, full military dictatorship will ensue - and at the very least, civil war seems in the offing.
The MDC have almost certainly won the election - but they haven’t won power yet.