Douglas Johnson

Douglas Johnson

Wednesday 30 April 2008

Rain, rain, go away…

It rained today in London. It didn’t really matter, beyond making canvassing distinctly unpleasant. I’m still a little wet.

If it happens tomorrow, it may matter.

No-one likes trudging out in the pouring rain to vote. However, rainy elections are traditionally bad for Labour. I can’t immediately recall the statistics - but they tend to have a lower turnout in poor weather. While the particularly tight race this year might coax more than usual out to vote, the rain and cold does tend to affect the Labour vote more than it does the Tory. There’s a reason Labour has pitched its elections in May for so long…

The record of Tory voters is more mixed. I’m sure rain will usually affect their voting numbers to, if not to the same extent as it does Labour. This election, tight as it is, might prove different, though. Many of Boris’ supporters are on his side more to kick out Ken than to elect Boris - and the actual Tories want both. They’ll be detirmined to turn out to the polls, regardless of the weather.

It;s not much. But, given how tight the race between Ken and BoJo is, even that may be enough to throw it…

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Posted in: London Mayor, Weather

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