Friday 3 October 2008

Reshuffle

Brown looks intent on respawning New Labour. Or rather, New Labour’s propaganda apparatus; Derek Draper returned recently, Mandelson comes back today. Unity suspects Campbell might return in a consulting role to fully pull together the team that tripped the landslide in 1997. Add to that the apparent retention and promotion of Blairites, and the neglect of the left - and it becomes clear Brown feels the 1997 formula might just work.

If so, he fails to note the rather obvious flaw in his plan; it’s not 1997, and we no longer have a Tory government in power. We have a Labour government, who’ve been in power since 1997, and so have presided over the current decline into gloom. For which they might well be blamed. Figures such as Mandelson thus become the problem, not the solution. They’re associated with all the worst aspects of New Labour - the lies, the hated spin - and their appointment simply reminds the public that they exist. So to expect their return to lead to a change in fortune is simply bizarre; they helped construct the current mess, and will be blamed for that. It’s a sign that Labour just isn’t listening, and wants to carry on as before - when, clearly, the polls show the public no longer want that. Mandelson might be a worryingly skilled political operator, but he’s also so loathed that he could well make the situation worse. So, on ideological and tactical grounds; a very bad decision.

Irrepressible…RAGE…

The reshuffle is more horrible than I could ever have imagined. Yes, it’s the return of Peter Mandelson, he who starves the poor and says that Brown should hold New Labour to the “Centre” rather than swinging left (when in fact the former would require the latter). John Hutton is moving to a role which will let him arrange killing people and Geoff Hoon, the man who previously did that job so poorly that British troops were fighting without basic body armour, is now in charge of transport. Doubtless a bus sighting will soon become a rarity.

In other words, the ascendency of the Blairites has become total. In this time of economic collapse Brown has found no place for the left. Perhaps he wishes to play the reliable New Labour acolytes off against the more radical Millibandians or perhaps, as usual, he’s just being a damn fool.

Priorities

First a word from Penny Red:

I rarely talk about American politics on this blog, and even less so since the hype has ramped up over the November election. Part of this has been because I believe that voyeuristic obsession over a political event with which British voters are relatively uninvolved exacerbates British political apathy.

Eloquently put, as ever. But also a policy which (as is most likely clear to our regular readers) which this blog has never followed. The reason is that although the democratic structures in place remain rigidly national, the economic and diplomatic ones are far less adherent to such localistic restrictions. Hence we became fantastically wealthy off of the internet bubble (with the internationalist elements blatantly obvious here: observe companies such as Amazon simply colonising with a .co.uk url) and then slumped once it burst, we became bloated courtesy of property markets and then were dashed against the rocks of Sub Prime (I was one of the few British victims, primarily the practice of mortgage selling is an American one).

Jonathan Freedland outlines this argument after joining Anatole Kaletsky in being an American writer who has become targeted by American right-wingers after writing an article that attracted their ire. The results were tiresomely predictable to any accustomed to their ilk:

I love it! A pansy-ass limey Brit begs the US to do his bidding while his own country slips further towards total Islamic rule.

As ever the American Right’s line on Europe can be summed up in a word: “Muslims”. As far as they are concerned Europe is socialist, thus needs a young workforce and as the only workforce available is the dreaded Muslims they are doomed to be taken over completely. So far as can be determined this is all the view they have of the Europeans, since their eschatological view of the outcome of immigration allows all other facts to slide into insignificance.

Unfortunately there seem to be an awfully large number of these cretins, with most of them being vocal to a disturbing degree. For the most part they congregate on The Times’ website (which seems to host an extraordinary amount of Americans) but that they found their way onto the Guardian’s comment section and into Freedland’s inbox fails to surprise me.

His response to the shout-down is also entirely correct: you can not establish yourself as a world power and expect none to be concerned about your leadership. If you begin intervening with the affairs of other nations they have a considerable stake in your government, as it is exerting an influence upon them regardless of whether or not they have an opportunity to hold it accountable.

But this also leads to a rather grim consideration: in many ways the American election matters significantly more to Britain than does the British one. Consider: the next prime minister will either be atlanticist interventionist Gordon Brown, atlanticist interventionist David Cameron or perhaps avowed atlanticist interventionist David Miliband. Now does it truly matter more which shade of poodle will trot along obediently with the American line, or is the dichotomy between McCain or Obama more important?

With regards to Iran, the difference between the potential Prime Ministers is minimal. Americans get a real choice and the American President is who matters when it comes to British foreign policy. Just one reason amongst many that the run-up to the presidential election is worth watching.

Just For The Lulz

Fox News tries to count:

Sarah Palin tries to play the flute:

Poor Man McCain

I’m not a rich man.

John McCain, oh he of the 13 cars and 7 houses (was that how many there were? He certainly can’t remember…)

Thursday 2 October 2008

How to lose elections and alienate people

From the McCain camp:

Could there be a more disingenuous ad? McCain’s team take footage of Obama at the debate, doctors it (poorly) to cut him off mid-sentence, and pushes it out. It simply misrepresents Obama; and we can see that, because they didn’t even bother to remove the “but” from the end of one of his sentences. And so negate the ad’s entire message, as it becomes clear that, actually, Obama doesn’t think McCain is right after all.

Even the visuals push credibility. Perhaps the juxtaposition of Obama’s head with graphics so tacky they look to be from a Vegas-style arcade game was meant to trivialise him, or evoke an air of cheap faux-celebrity. But, in reality, they simply look amateur - as does McCain’s campaign, increasingly.

Contrast that with Obama’s latest offering:

It’s brilliant. Obama offers coherent content, delivered clearly, and looks convincing. The delivery evokes the tone of Roosevelt’s fireside chats; Obama talks directly and reassuringly to the people about the economy. And he offers them a solution - far more than McCain’s ads on the economy manage.

Every election campaign where one side balances optimism with reasons not to vote for the opposition, while that opposition simply pushes out ferocious attack ads, has had the same result; the optimists won. Constant offence might put voters off one candidate, but it gives them no reason to vote for the attacker. So they simply stay at home, instead; or judge that any candidate who makes such a fuss but proposes no alternative is just full of hot air. And that’s certainly the impression McCain must give at the moment.

(Hat-tips: BenSix and Miller respectively.)

Thoughts on Ian Blair

Tom suggests a very plausible strategy for Boris’ spinning strategy:

Hmm, Boris can always say he’s looking forward to working closely with the next appointment on KNIFE CRIME and YOUNG HOODIE MUGGERS etc. The spin is obvious and easy, show Boris as the Voice of the People, we need change, fresh start, new broom, Blair unfortunately tained by the failed policies of the Labour past, yada ya. Job’s a good ‘un. I should do this for a living.

That assumes he gets his way; as well he might, given the subservience of the London papers and Blair’s numerous enemies on either side of the spectrum. But it could go wrong.

Blair’s statement made it clear from the start that Boris forced him out. That makes the move look political, and that could play badly. The police exist to enforce the legislation of democratically elected bodies. The need for that legislation to be applied universally and without prejudice means that the police force must exist without political influence. Democratic bodies should exist to ensure the force remains accountable and enforces the laws properly - but it must itself remain free from interference from partisan individuals.

Democracy comes in the formulation of the law, not its application, which should remain the same no matter who does the application. So when a politician clearly edges a public servant out of their job, we should worry. Blair is abused as a political appointment, but his political resignation matters just as much - it’s exactly the same principle, after all.

And, if Boris did force Blair out, that raises a perhaps more damaging charge; that of political immaturity. Blair gives the impression that Boris wanted him gone largely out of dislike and disagreement. And yet that’s what you’ll encounter every day in public, and indeed general, life. You won’t like everyone you meet, and you won’t agree with everyone you work with; but you need to accept that and move on if you want to ever get something done.

That Boris apparently couldn’t do that here could be made to work against him. The opposition could easily use this, and the rash of resignations from his office over the Summer, to form a narrative of incompetence; with such trouble, they’d say, it’s clear the man can’t operate in public life. That could hurt, if it last long enough.

Illustrative

(Hat-tip: The Daily (Maybe))

Ian Blair Resignation

Currently watching Ian Blair’s resignation live. Boris clearly being made the bogey-man. Fully expect the Home Sec to push that line harder.

I don’t care for unnecessary Boris-bashing - my interest here is this: can Boris spin this to his advantage? I doubt he can.

I bet Cameron will be livid at the “Nasty Party” jibes that will doubtless flood back.

Worst Advice Of The Season

GOP to McCain: be more aggressive.

Recommended

Berlusconi recently put 3000 troops on the streets of Rome. But who really believes that from a government that placed gypsies on an ethnic register? The move smacks of a barely closeted racism; it assumes a moral panic sparked by the single murder in November is fully justified, and that gypsies are solely to blame for all Italian crime. Pandering, in short, to prejudice.

Read In Full