Liberal Democrats Take The Lead
That was the only thing I found noteworthy from the latest Metro poll. That the Tories are thrashing Labour soundly is hardly news by now. As ever the more interesting points revealed are missed, both the one Ali made yesterday (although here the Greens are not even mentioned, so perhaps their share was not notable) and the fact that according to this poll the supposed “Third Party” of British politics has overtaken the one which was, not so long ago, digging in to become the New Party of Power is also not noted upon. As far as I can tell a Liberal Democrat spokesperson was not asked to tell their view, despite the fact that if these figures hold up then they will become Her Majesty’s Opposition.
It may will be that the sample size and nature (solely professionals beneath the age of fifty) of the poll has skewed it strangely and left it disproportionate. But the malaise that is eating our party of power, the rot setting into Labour, is now unmistakable and undeniable. Whether the Liberal Democrats are capable of pressing home upon this remains to be seen, as I am becoming sick of typing, but if this poll is to be believed they are at least doing a reasonable job of coming second.
More important than the Metro’s poor presentation and questionable legitimacy, however, are the implications: first and foremost it is madness for Brown to continue his reluctance to introduce Proportional Representation or a hybrid system. With this a Lib-Lab coalition, something that would almost certainly be formed, would require only a mild rise to reach power. With the additional support of the Greens (perhaps at the cost of Heathrow Expansion) a slightly unstable but pleasingly survivalist union could be formed to ensure that Brown remained in power and the LibDems would, finally, get a chance to fill cabinet positions without feeling like traitors.
As it is Labour faces political annihilation. Clinging to the absurd First Past The Post, constituency based system is a tendency which will drag Gordon Brown into his political grave.
It also means that Labour has a new target: not only should they give beating the Tories a go but, as a starting act, are going to need to overtake the LibDems.
Certainly a distinct political landscape from the one that we are accustomed to.
The Greens are exceptionally unlikely to form a coalition with Brown, even if Heathrow expansion was stopped. Certainly while he clung to his watered-down Thatcherism, stayed in Iraq, etc, etc. Most members would be very uncomfortable with it - and those in favour might well steer clear for fear of Wall and co. being able to say they were right all along about leaders. And electoral strategy relies to a certain degree as being seen as, “different,” to the other political parties. So, I suspect that one isn’t too likely.
Likewise, I’m not too sure how comfortable the Lib Dems would be with a coalition with Labour, to be honest. A Lib-Lab pact might contaminate their attempts to be seen as anything other than the wayward left-wing of the Labour Party. And, given that the prospect of being the Official Opposition would essentially allow them to secure that independence, they’d probably steer clear.
Not that I’m confident Clegg will actually exploit Labour’s unpopularity very effectively…
If the Greens were the few missing seats in a coalition which would keep a Conservative Government from occurring they would not stay missing for long.
Hmm. Not so sure about that. Many Greens actively fail to see the difference between Labour and the Tories. Lots of stuff about “Grey” parties. It’d certainly have to be a more left-wing government than at present. But I suppose that’s more possible anyway. Brown might well have to go. I suppose it’s possible, but still fairly sceptical about it. (Sorry about poor english - on phone, 1 funger typing. Will be more eloquent later.)
Brown would do whatever it took.
If the Labour party had left him in charge. Although I suppose you could substitute, “the Labour leader,” for Brown and the sentence would still hold some level of truth.
If Brown could make a coalition work then Brown would stay on as Prime Minister.
Ack, I managed to miss the whole, “Brown should introduce PR before seeking coalition,” thing. Somehow, I thought you’d argued that Brown should call a general election and try and build a coalition out of the results, and should probably introduce PR along the way, rather than that specific order. Perverse of me, sorry.