This race is becoming utterly impossible to keep track of.

I had no idea what Edwards was up to until recently, when I read convincing arguments suggesting that by this stage he was remaining within the race purely in order to play kingmaker with his roughly 10%s worth of delegates {or as many as he could pick up} and become the Vice Presidential candidate of whomsoever received his favour.

And now this.

My view that the race is simply beyond prediction by this stage is reinforced by this event: if you had asked me what the biggest drop-out story of the day would be yesterday I would have said “Giuliani” without a second of consideration. Given that he came third and had established his entire strategy around the “Late States” he was certain to leave but given that Edwards failed to secure 5% in the last primary to come a third by that sort of a margin was not a crushing defeat but  instead a return to his norm.

But then, if you had asked me six months ago who would have just won the Florida election it is likely that I would have said “Giuliani”. McCain’s campaign seemed to implode entirely in the middle of last year and at that stage it was only Thompson who seemed likely to de-throne America’s Mayor. But besides this glamorous insurgent the prospects for any other candidate were truly bleak and Rudy seemed set to force the Evangelical base into submission.

But now McCain, ancient man McCain who seemed likely to drop out before the voting had even started not so long ago, is toe-to-toe with previously unknown Romney, while the Theocrats incapable of stomaching either Mitt’s Mormonism or McCain’s social liberalism are flocking to Huckabee and forming a firm core that will not waver but shows no signs of expansion.

Yes, it has become a show-down between the one who wants to “Double Guantanamo” and the one who wants to keep America in Iraq for centuries in order to win, with the one who wants to amend the Constitution to include a little more Leviticus fun as a nearly ineluctable VP.

What is striking above all else is that the Republicans can manage to be so volatile yet remain utterly vile.

Also interesting is that McCain, he who once referred to the fundies as “Agents of Intolerance” may well have to accept their doyenne as his running mate. There are a variety of reasons against selecting Huckabee to be his would-be-VP but electoral reasoning is not amongst them: McCain needs to do all that he can to expand his success into evangelical enclaves and Huckabee is by far his best means of doing this. He has already been making advances recently but they remain unconvinced, standing shoulder-to-shoulder with the man who once advocated locking away AIDS sufferers from the World is the perfect way to do it.

But for Edwards’ departure the Democrats field would look notably similar: two headlining candidates with a lead that no opponent could ever hope to close with a third that is certain to receive the consolation prize and an extreme but admirable outsider lingering and refusing to leave {Kuchinich or Paul}.

{Ah, wait, Kuchinich dropped out. That this was not deemed notable by anyone at all tells you something about his chances of winning anywhere. It is, however, notable that Giuliani advocated “Peace through Strength” while the aforementioned’s slogan is “Strength through Peace”.

Regardless…}

Without Edwards there, however, the dynamic shifts: it is a simple zero sum game of Obama and Clinton. Unless he continued to endorse one of his former rivals Edwards is still the most likely candidate by far for the VP slot, although Clinton could do well to at least offer that to Obama should she win {the thought of her face if he won and offered it to her is simply priceless…} but for now he has simplified the process to the extent that the only way neither of them could triumph is if somebody dies.

This makes the importance of Super Tuesday even greater as previous estimations of its impact were based around the principle that roughly 10-15% of the votes and a proportionate amount of delegates would be siphoned off by Edwards. Without this and where {if anywhere} the votes which would have been his will go is entirely uncertain and for the time being this race is entirely up in the air.

Will any trace of normalcy strike? Well thus far this race has managed to be reliable only in that it will confound much of what you thought to be overwhelmingly likely. Thompson will lap up the Conservatives and provide an alternative to the liberal Rudy? Clinton is now inevitable? Obama will land-slide New Hampshire? Bill Clinton staying so low-key? Or at least refraining from partisan attack-doggery? Romney’s massive spend will help him dominate? The ‘Late State Strategy’ will stir up the race? McCain’s campaign has collapsed? Huckabee is far too poor and niche to possibly triumph in any state? Giuliani will at least defeat Ron Paul in the early states?

All seemed reliable, all were wrong.

I imagine that this campaign has plenty of surprises left before the election proper begins. There are plenty of uncertainties present {where will Edward’s votes be given? Who will he endorse? Will he at all?} but it is the assumptions that truly need to be watched. Those are the rug which has thus far been tugged and from Obama claiming NYC {if not the state} to an elderly man far to the left of the current Republican establishment, who is a victim of torture rather than an advocate, seizing as an insurgent a party that largely hates his guts and loathes his views on almost everything in a process that is generally the means of a much-flared coronation it seems that events which would once have seemed politically preposterous are now growing increasingly likely.

Perhaps the rejuvenation of America will occur, perhaps the spirit conjured by the 1960s and evoked by Ted Kennedy will return to coat the nation as a blanket or perhaps America will stay locked into Iraq for millenia seeking “Victory”. Stranger still, perhaps Huckabee will actually win. For the time being, anything goes.