This speech was a find by Andrew Sullivan and he speculated that the influence of it could have been immense upon the result. I can understand why and he certainly does seem to be a powerful public speaker.Better still he combines this with an actual sound head for real policy: skipping from saying that he is the one to take on the corporate lobbyists, to promising healthcare for every American by the end of his first term, to pledging to end the Iraq War and cease US dependence upon oil “Bought from dictators” he manages to tick every box and, better still, you can tell that he means it.

Does he actually have the capability to achieve all that he says? Perhaps not but it certainly sounds better than Clinton, who seems to spew out what her policy advisers, with a careful eye on the polls, just programmed into her. Furthermore the advantage of electing somebody with such passion is clear: it is obvious that Obama cares deeply about these issues, rather than just seeing the speech as another few steps on his glorious road to rule.

Indeed, he makes a subtle little dig at Clinton along those lines, saying that he is not interested in doing things purely for popularity.

By the sounds of things our man’s a right social democrat, actually, even going so far as to say that the minimum wage will rise along with inflation instead of when Congress gets around to it. This is pure poison as far as much of the Right are concerned but, pleasingly, it is also something which I could near enough imagine Huckabee {who is, despite the disdain of the Republican Establishment, the de facto front-runner} with his theocratic philanthropy agreeing to.

Much as it might pain libertarians the idea of an election face-off between these two is one I find highly pleasing. Huckabee’s striking ignorance concerning just about everything {ranging from Evolution to foreign policy} is worrying but is just more fodder to be used against him in any election. Indeed the Democrats seem to have been keeping their lips buttoned to ensure that more Republicans fail to notice this.

Although it is unlikely that Obama is the man for the job groups such as Move On have a vast amount of ammunition on the Pastor, with his dog-hanging son and former fantasies of concentration camps for the HIV-positive, and the funds to secure advertising. He seems exactly the sort to scare off moderates and indies. They would, in short, have field-day.

And if not him? McCain is the greatest threat but also stands little hope of getting past the more religious states, although as my brother observed did achieve the notable feat of securing 13% support of a state that makes the vast majority of its income through corn sales while advocating the elimination of corn subsidies. This bodes well for less agricultural regions, but his chances against an advocate of change and seems clearly to embody the future remain slim.

Giulini, meanwhile, was thrashed 10-to-1 by Huckabee in Iowa and beaten by Ron Paul, a candidate that he had previously experienced rhetorical alterations with over Iraq. At the time it looked like the front-runner giving the man-least-likely-to the only publicity that he was likely to receive for the entire campaign. Although that title probably still applies to Ron Paul Rudy lost his a while back and despite the fact that he did not even campaign in the state the notion of him winning elsewhere is one that I am dubious of.

So which likely candidate is the one that gives the Republicans most hope of winning? Easy: Hillary Clinton.

At the moment the party is rending itself into dissimilar, easily distinguishable chunks as the House That Reagen Built {using a mixture of populism, scepticism towards the state, covert racism and jingoism} collapses over his carcass.

The conservative consensus is a curious edifice, sticking together a bunch of opposing elements into one almighty paradox, which is peculiar in sight and maintains no semblance of internal logic but remains formidable, sweeping all reason before it aside with pure momentum. The only thing that can hold them together now that fear is being snuffed out is another negative emotion: hate.

This was of great use to them previously, with homophobia drawing in the evangelicals like a bear heading for honey. But the loathing which they feel for Hillary runs even deeper, and far broader. If she is the candidate then they will be drawn together by their hatred, tighter than they have ever been since the WTC attacks and in unison with their howls of shimmering, aching disgust.

As a demonstration of this I would suggest visiting any forum proclaiming itself as conservative, regardless of the stripe, and see what is said of her there. The only way to distinguish the form of conservative they are then is the exact reasons they find her so loathsome and, perhaps, the intensity of their ire. Which ranges from “I’ll kill myself if she gets in” to “I’ll kill her“.

This is not simply some caustic clique, though, polls show that 50% of Americans would never even consider voting for her. Considering that her husband never won a popular mandate this should perhaps be not as great a worry as it might same but regardless, in a multitude of ways her selection would be…Unwise.

The damage done to interaction between the infamous “Two Americas” would be near unprecedented. If Giuliani shared her victory it would be as if John Redwood was elected to lead the Tories and George Galloway Labour.

As enjoyable as this might be to watch the actual impact upon the country would be entirely negative. She might weather the storm and reach the White House but as useful as it would be for the rightist demagogues to have a hate-figure which is the epitome of their twisted views of progressive politicians {Hillary no longer considers herself a “Liberal”, whatever that means over there} I doubt that it would be beneficial for the state of the national dialogue. It would result in an onslaught of hate, with her twisting and distorting and squirming to try and convince those that despise every iota of her being and ultimately achieving nothing save making the heftiest profit for the multi-media, bile-spewing Hate Industry that so loves to despise her since her husband was in power.

The alternative is the man at the top of this post winning. Take your pick.